Learning is at the heart of AgResults

This brief summarizes the close-out assessment of the Zambia Biofortified Maize Challenge Project. External Evaluator Abt Associates found that the competition helped develop a niche market for Pro-Vitamin A maize, although Vitamin A-deficient populations were a small portion of those who consumed the maize. The brief underscores the importance of directly targeting intended beneficiaries in project design.

This brief, updated in November 2020, summarizes evaluation findings for the Nigeria project. External Evaluator Abt Associates found that AgResults helped create a niche market for Aflasafe-treated maize and an increase in farmers’ uptake of Aflasafe and net maize income. Market sustainability is uncertain due to unstable market conditions and delays in implementation of aflatoxin-related policies.

The Nigeria Aflasafe Challenge Project evaluation (published in February 2019, end-of-project update added November 2020) found that the project succeeded in creating a niche market for Aflasafe-treated maize. Aflasafe adoption increased by 56 percentage points, and average net income from maize increased by 16 percent. The sustainability of the market is uncertain.

Evaluator Abt Associates revisited the Nigeria Aflasafe Challenge Project at its conclusion, two years after the comprehensive mixed-methods assessment. They found that private sector involvement in the Aflasafe-treated maize market had increased despite reduction in the AgResults incentive, but that the Aflasafe-treated maize market’s sustainability was uncertain given general maize market instability and delayed implementation of aflatoxin-related policies.

This brief by External Evaluator Abt Associates explores how Pay-for-Results (PfR) projects could potentially perpetuate disadvantages that women face in agricultural market systems and suggests project design approaches to improve gender outcomes. It also presents results from AgResults’ Kenya PfR project that led to unique benefits for women.

Since 2013, AgResults has been designing and implementing agricultural prize competitions to encourage the private sector to "solve" a market failure and work toward a defined goal to receive a monetary award. In this cross-cutting learning document, AgResults presents 12 key takeaways based on its experience with prize concept design and sourcing; launch and marketing; and running a prize competition.

More than 4.5 billion people in developing countries are exposed to aflatoxins, one of the world’s most carcinogenic substances, through their diets. Yet a biocontrol solution exists: Aflasafe^TM. The AgResults Nigeria Aflasafe^TM Challenge Project (2013-2019) used a Pay-for-Results (PfR) prize competition to motivate the private sector to overcome critical barriers preventing widespread adoption of Aflasafe^TM among Nigerian smallholder farmers working in the maize sector. Over six years, the competition engaged 41 competitors to reach 75,788 farmers, producing more than 315,000MT of Aflasafe^TM-treated maize.

The evaluation design for the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Vaccine Challenge Project, by IDinsight, lays out a mixed-methods approach relying primarily on qualitative process-tracing techniques. The document highlights the role of data collected from potential vaccine manufacturers, buyers, policymakers, and others to explore how the project impacts the development and uptake of FMD vaccines in Eastern Africa.

This brief by External Evaluator Abt Associates summarizes the evaluation of the AgResults Kenya On-Farm Storage Challenge Project. Abt Associates found that the competition created an emerging market for improved on-farm storage devices and increased adoption of on-farm storage technologies. However, impacts on farmer income were small. The brief underscores the challenge of constructing an accurate theory of change.

Abt Associates’ evaluation design of the Vietnam GHG Emissions Reduction Challenge Project envisions a randomized control design. This report assesses the success of the initial randomization and confirms that competitors adhered to rules respecting communes set aside for control; it also confirms similarities between control and treatment groups at baseline.

The evaluation design for the Vietnam GHG Emissions Reduction Challenge Project, by Abt Associates, lays out a mixed methods approach, including a randomized control design. The document highlights the role of interviews, surveys, and farmer diaries to explore the effect of the Vietnam project on the market for emissions-reducing technologies and to estimate impacts on farmers’ knowledge, attitude, practices, and incomes.

This assessment by External Evaluator Abt Associates reflects the experience of competitors in the Brucellosis Vaccine Challenge Project from mid-2018 to mid-2019. Most competitors reported that the competition had helped advance their B. melitensis vaccine R&D. However, many of them anticipated challenges completing the safety and efficacy trials due to resource constraints.

This DFID Chief Economist Seminar Series presentation from February 2020 summarizes External Evaluator Abt Associates' findings about the use of “pull mechanisms” or “prize competitions” to develop markets that provide innovative agricultural technologies to smallholder farmers. Findings suggest that pull mechanisms can create markets as long as the binding constraints inhibiting market development are within the manageable interest of the companies competing for the prize.

Despite the nutritional and environmental benefits of legumes, Ugandan seed companies have not prioritized legume seed production due to fluctuations in demand, low profitability, and limited access to working capital. The AgResults Uganda Legume Seed Challenge Project, which ran from 2017-2018, used a Pay-for-Results prize competition to encourage Ugandan seed companies to increase the production and adoption of improved higher-quality legume varieties. Despite the project’s early closure due to ongoing seed counterfeiting, low participation in the competition, and challenges of seed quality verification, it still revealed valuable learning around what works and what does not work when designing and implementing a prize competition focused on increasing sales of quality seed.

Eastern Africa grows nearly 20% of the grain produced in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the region suffers from post-harvest grain losses that cost about US$1.6 billion per year. The AgResults Kenya On-Farm Storage Challenge Project (2014-2018) used a Pay-for-Results prize competition to motivate private competitors to develop, market, and sell on-farm storage devices to smallholder farmers in the country's Rift Valley and Eastern Regions. Overall, participating competitors sold a total of 1,390,777 improved storage devices, creating 413,265 MT of improved storage capacity.

The external evaluation of the Kenya On-Farm Storage Challenge Project found that the project created an emerging market for improved on-farm storage products in Kenya. Impacts on farmer income and food security were small, and the main reported benefit of adoption was reduced use of pesticide dust in maize stored for home consumption.

This baseline report by External Evaluator Abt Associates describes the Brucellosis vaccine landscape at baseline. Evaluators found that the vaccine market is weak and no new vaccines to control Brucellosis have been developed in recent years. Evaluators also found that the Milestone 1 prize seemed to incentivize some new entities to initiate Brucellosis vaccine R&D.

This presentation from the 2019 Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock (GASL) Multi-Stakeholder Partnership (MSP) meeting introduces AgResults' framework, which uses prize competitions to encourage the private sector to overcome market challenges. The World Bank and AgResults Secretariat share lessons from designing and implementing competitions to strengthen livestock health and productivity: a global Brucellosis vaccine competition, a vaccine competition to address Foot and Mouth Disease in Eastern Africa, and a Tanzania-based competition to boost dairy productivity.

In Zambia, approximately 31% of children and 21% of women are affected by Vitamin A deficiency. The Zambia Biofortified Maize Challenge Project (2014-2018) used a Pay-for-Results (PfR) prize structure to incentivize commercial millers to source, produce, and market Pro-Vitamin A (PVA) maize meal and boost consumer demand to increase PVA maize consumption. Although the project closed early due to the lack of market response and ongoing enabling environment challenges, it still resulted in rich learning around what works and does not work when designign and implementing PfR prize competitions.

The AgResults Prize Concept Review Framework assesses concepts for validity as a prize competition. The framework comprises four key questions on the (a) market failure, (b) missions impact, (c) prize design, and (d) enabling environment.