Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

In Progress


The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project is a four-year, US$4.9 million prize competition that aims to increase dairy productivity by encouraging private sector input suppliers to deliver inputs to smallholder farmers. By providing a prize for each bundle of high-quality inputs delivered, the competitions will increase animal productivity, boost smallholder farmers’ incomes, and strengthen value chain relationships between dairy producers and the formal dairy sector. Land O’Lakes Venture37 serves as the Project Manager.

Photo of dairy cows in The Challenge Project
The Challenge Project aims to improve dairy productivity and farmers’ incomes.

Tanzania Dairy Project Timeline



Low-Yield Breeds and Poor Management Practices

The Tanzanian dairy sector, which is dominated by smallholder farmers, struggles for a variety of reasons: approximately 97% of Tanzania’s dairy cattle are low-yield breeds, poor management practices are prevalent, and there are seasonal fluctuations in the availability of forage and feed. This precludes many smallholder farmers from accessing affordable extension or veterinary services. The lack of high-quality inputs, such as parasite control, nutritious feed, vaccines, and artificial insemination (AI), is at the heart of the problem.


Theory of Change

The project is designed to incentivize private sector input suppliers to package and deliver input bundles comprising a combination of parasite controls, high quality feed or fodder, vaccines, and/or artificial insemination inputs to smallholder dairy farmers. By encouraging suppliers to provide input bundles and advisory services to smallholder farmers, the project will address a variety of current weaknesses in Tanzania’s dairy value chain. As farmers gain access to these materials and receive regular training, their knowledge of livestock management will improve as will their use of vaccines and health inputs, in turn boosting the nutrition of cows. Healthier and more productive cows will improve the quality of the milk, positioning smallholder farmers to participate more fully in formal markets. Accessing these markets will drive up smallholder farmers’ incomes and cement their relationships with key value chain actors.

Prize Structure

Flow diagram of Tanzania project prize structure

Increasing Prize Amount for Complex Bundles

Prize bonuses will be applied when competitors bundle one or more inputs. These bonuses aim to incentivize the development of partnerships between companies and help competitors more affordably offer inputs to farmers. These more complex bundles are expected to generate higher productivity gains for farmers.

Tiered diagram of Tanzania project prize bundles

Input Categories

Competitors must sell the following inputs directly to smallholder farmers to qualify for a prize:

  • Artificial Insemination (AI): Conventional or sexed semen and minerals
  • Vaccines: Vaccines for commonly occurring cattle diseases, adjusted each year
  • Parasite control: A combination of Acaricides and Anthelminthic as a single input package
  • Nutrition: Approved nutrition packages that may include hay, fodder, minerals, vitamins, urea molasses blocks, use of individual fodder plots, and standard dairy meal
Table of Tanzania project input types


The project is expected to engage private sector dairy input suppliers in Tanzania to deliver a variety of input bundles to smallholder farmers to increase milk production quantity and quality. By pairing these input bundles with required extension services, input providers will develop relationships with farmers and build sustainable networks to strengthen the entire value chain. Because bundles with multiple inputs will earn higher monetary prices, suppliers may create coalitions to package and deliver these complex bundles. As farmers continue to incorporate best practices and high-quality inputs, animal productivity will improve, and farmers will create links with commercial milk processors and reach formal markets. At the same time, rural households will have regular access to more nutritious milk for home consumption.

AgResults expects to achieve the following by the end of the project:

  • Approximately 23M liters of additional milk production
  • $9.4 million in additional farmer revenue
  • $4.14 million in competitor revenue
  • 22% market penetration in the number of dairy farmers in the target region(s) reached


Coming soon!


Evaluation Design

For the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project, the Evaluator plans to implement a quasi-experimental impact evaluation. This approach involves comparing smallholder farmers in target project areas (treatment group) with farmers in areas not reached by the project (comparison group) to assess the project’s impact on adoption of improved technologies. The evaluation will also compare farmers who adopt the technologies versus those who do not to assess how the technologies impact dairy productivity, income, and dairy consumption. To assess the project’s impact on the market for dairy productivity-enhancing technologies, the Evaluator is conducting a qualitative pre-post comparison guided by the structure-conduct-performance analytical framework.

Evaluation Stage

The Evaluator is currently carrying out baseline data collection, analysis, and reporting. The full evaluation design is complete and available here. Endline data collection will occur in 2024, after which the final evaluation report will be published.


What We’ve Learned through Implementation

This section shares our learning from the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project design and implementation. Further details can be found in the Learning Library.

Relevant Learning

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Evaluator’s Gender Assessment: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Project

May 23, 2023

This assessment, conducted during project implementation, found significant diversity in the roles men and women play in households’ dairy activities, with female farmers often less well positioned than males to achieve and benefit from dairy intensification. While the project’s design offsets some risk of negative outcomes to women, payment-for-results projects have limited leeway to promote gender equity.

EvaluatorLearning LibraryTanzania Dairy

Lessons Learned Article: Pay for Results’ Role in Transforming Tanzania’s Dairy Input Supplier Model

February 16, 2023

The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Challenge Project was established to incentivize private sector input suppliers to raise awareness and educate smallholder farmers on the value of adopting productivity-increasing input bundles to enhance production and strengthen dairy-based livelihoods. This Lessons Learned article explores how the project has already made an impactful shift in the dairy input supplier model and market, strengthening SHF’s demand for improved inputs.

Learning LibraryTanzania Dairy

Evaluation Design: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

May 17, 2021

The evaluation design for the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project by Abt Associates lays out a mixed-methods approach. To assess impact on dairy producers, the evaluator will use a quasi-experimental design to gauge technology adoption and subsequent impacts on income and consumption. The approach will use a structure, conduct, performance framework to assess market impact.

EvaluatorTanzania Dairy

Project Team

Headshot photo of Neema Mrema

Neema Mrema

Land O’Lakes Venture37 – Team Lead

Neema Mrema is the Team Leader for the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project. Prior to joining the AgResults team, Ms. Mrema led three Tanzania-based international donor-funded projects and held senior management positions in private businesses. She has more than a decade of extensive experience in farming/agricultural systems, value chain, management and marketing systems. Currently, Ms. Mrema is responsible for management of day-to-day project activities and the quality delivery of deliverables. She has a Master of Science in Applied Microbiology from University of Botswana.

Headshot photo of Samuel Karnis

Samuel Karnis

Land O'Lakes Venture37 – Program Director

Samuel Karnis has 12 years of experiencing working in international program delivery and design, including eight years with Land O’Lakes Venture37 as a Program Manager, Department Manager, DCOP, and COP. Mr. Karnis currently serves as a Program Director overseeing Venture37’s portfolio of trade-related programming and the AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project. His areas of expertise include agribusiness development, dairy, and public-private partnerships. Prior to joining Land O’Lakes, Mr. Karnis worked with USAID, the U.S. State Department, and the Department of Defense. He holds a M.S. in Peacekeeping Operations from George Mason University.