Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

Completed

SUMMARY

The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project was a four-year, US$4.9 million prize competition that aimed to increase dairy productivity by encouraging private sector input suppliers to deliver inputs to smallholder farmers. By providing a prize for each bundle of high-quality inputs delivered, the competitions increased animal productivity, boosted smallholder farmers’ incomes, and strengthened value chain relationships between dairy producers and the formal dairy sector. Land O’Lakes Venture37 served as the Project Manager.

Photo of dairy cows in The Challenge Project
The Challenge Project aimed to improve dairy productivity and farmers’ incomes.

Tanzania Dairy Project Timeline

THE LEARNING JOURNEY


THE PROBLEM

Low-Yield Breeds and Poor Management Practices

The Tanzanian dairy sector, which is dominated by smallholder farmers, struggles for a variety of reasons: approximately 97% of Tanzania’s dairy cattle are low-yield breeds, poor management practices are prevalent, and there are seasonal fluctuations in the availability of forage and feed. This precludes many smallholder farmers from accessing affordable extension or veterinary services. The lack of high-quality inputs, such as parasite control, nutritious feed, vaccines, and artificial insemination (AI), is at the heart of the problem.


CONTEST DESIGN

Theory of Change

The project was designed to incentivize private sector input suppliers to package and deliver input bundles comprising a combination of parasite controls, high quality feed or fodder, vaccines, and/or artificial insemination inputs to smallholder dairy farmers. By encouraging suppliers to provide input bundles and advisory services to smallholder farmers, the project addressed a variety of current weaknesses in Tanzania’s dairy value chain. As farmers gained access to these materials and received regular training, their knowledge of livestock management improved as did their use of vaccines and health inputs, in turn boosting the nutrition of cows. Healthier and more productive cows improved the quality of the milk, positioning smallholder farmers to participate more fully in formal markets. Accessing these markets drove up smallholder farmers’ incomes and cemented their relationships with key value chain actors.

Prize Structure

Flow diagram of Tanzania project prize structure

Increasing Prize Amount for Complex Bundles

Prize bonuses were applied when competitors bundle one or more inputs. These bonuses aimed to incentivize the development of partnerships between companies and help competitors more affordably offer inputs to farmers. These more complex bundles were expected to generate higher productivity gains for farmers.

Tiered diagram of Tanzania project prize bundles

Input Categories

Competitors had to sell the following inputs directly to smallholder farmers to qualify for a prize:

  • Artificial Insemination (AI): Conventional or sexed semen and minerals
  • Vaccines: Vaccines for commonly occurring cattle diseases, adjusted each year
  • Parasite control: A combination of Acaricides and Anthelminthic as a single input package
  • Nutrition: Approved nutrition packages that may include hay, fodder, minerals, vitamins, urea molasses blocks, use of individual fodder plots, and standard dairy meal
Table of Tanzania project input types

EXPECTED IMPACT

The project was expected to engage private sector dairy input suppliers in Tanzania to deliver a variety of input bundles to smallholder farmers to increase milk production quantity and quality. By pairing these input bundles with required extension services, input providers would develop relationships with farmers and build sustainable networks to strengthen the entire value chain. Because bundles with multiple inputs will earn higher monetary prices, some suppliers would also create coalitions to package and deliver these complex bundles. As farmers continued to incorporate best practices and high-quality inputs, animal productivity would improve, and farmers would create links with commercial milk processors and reach formal markets. At the same time, rural households would have regular access to more nutritious milk for home consumption.

AgResults expected to achieve the following by the end of the project:

  • Approximately 23M liters of additional milk production
  • $9.4 million in additional farmer revenue
  • $4.14 million in competitor revenue
  • 22% market penetration in the number of dairy farmers in the target region(s) reached

ACTUAL RESULTS

24

# of Competitors

84,833

SHF Reached

$3,585,246

Prizes Awarded (USD)

830,103

Input Bundles Sold


EVALUATION

Evaluation Design

For the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project, the Evaluator planned to implement a quasi-experimental impact evaluation. This approach involved comparing smallholder farmers in target project areas (treatment group) with farmers in areas not reached by the project (comparison group) to assess the project’s impact on adoption of improved technologies. The evaluation also compared farmers who adopted the technologies versus those who did not to assess how the technologies impact dairy productivity, income, and dairy consumption. To assess the project’s impact on the market for dairy productivity-enhancing technologies, the Evaluator conducted a qualitative pre-post comparison guided by the structure-conduct-performance analytical framework. The full evaluation design is complete and available here.

Evaluation Stage

In 2021, the Evaluator conducted a baseline study of smallholder farmers’ dairy technologies. The Evaluator is currently carrying out data collection and analysis for the endline evaluation to assess whether AgResults successfully incentivized increased involvement of the private sector to deliver inputs and extension services to dairy farmers and the sustainability of prize challenge impacts. The endline report will be published in early 2025.


LEARNING

What We’ve Learned through Implementation

This section shares our learning from the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project design and implementation. Further details can be found in the Learning Library.

Relevant Learning

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Final Report: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

October 24, 2024

Largely driven by smallholder farmers, the Tanzanian dairy sector has historically struggled, but there is a significant opportunity for smallholder farmers to expand their production, especially those located in the coastal region of the country. The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project (2020-2024) used a Pay-for-Results (PfR) prize competition to incentivize private sector input suppliers to deliver "bundles" of inputs to smallholder farmers and drive dairy productivity. Over four years, the competition engaged 24 competitors to sell 830,103 input bundles to 84,833 smallholder dairy farmers.

Learning LibraryTanzania Dairy Productivity

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One-Pager: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

April 17, 2025

The Tanzanian dairy sector has historically faced challenges like low-yield breeds, poor management, and seasonal forage fluctuations. The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project (2020-2024) aimed to enhance productivity among smallholder farmers; strengthen value chain relationships; and increase farmers' incomes through a Pay-for-Results (PfR) prize competition. This one-pager provides a high-level overview of the project.

PfR BasicsTanzania Dairy Productivity

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Evaluator’s Gender Assessment: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Project

May 23, 2023

This assessment, conducted during project implementation, found significant diversity in the roles men and women play in households’ dairy activities, with female farmers often less well positioned than males to achieve and benefit from dairy intensification. While the project’s design offsets some risk of negative outcomes to women, payment-for-results projects have limited leeway to promote gender equity.

EvaluatorLearning LibraryTanzania Dairy Productivity

Lessons Learned Article: Pay for Results’ Role in Transforming Tanzania’s Dairy Input Supplier Model

February 16, 2023

The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Challenge Project was established to incentivize private sector input suppliers to raise awareness and educate smallholder farmers on the value of adopting productivity-increasing input bundles to enhance production and strengthen dairy-based livelihoods. This Lessons Learned article explores how the project has already made an impactful shift in the dairy input supplier model and market, strengthening SHF’s demand for improved inputs.

Learning LibraryTanzania Dairy Productivity

Evaluation Design: Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project

May 17, 2021

The evaluation design for the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project by Abt Associates lays out a mixed-methods approach. To assess impact on dairy producers, the evaluator will use a quasi-experimental design to gauge technology adoption and subsequent impacts on income and consumption. The approach will use a structure, conduct, performance framework to assess market impact.

EvaluatorTanzania Dairy Productivity

Relevant News and Blog

Farmer provides feed to dairy cow in Tanzania

Private: Success Story: Best in Show in Tanzania

July 8, 2024

From 2020 - 2024, 24 business owners participated in the AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project, which was implemented…

A farmer holds up a bag of nutritious feed for her dairy cows.

How Pay-for-Results Paved the Way for Sustainable Dairy Production in Tanzania

July 15, 2024

The Tanzania prize competition transformed the way that dairy businesses in the country approach delivery of inputs and…

A shop owner in Tanzania points to agricultural supplies on his shelves.

The Transformative Power of Prizes in Tanzania

July 31, 2024

The AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project, managed by Land O’Lakes Venture37, used a Pay-for-Results prize competition that…

woman spraying cow with parasite control

How Pay-for-Results is Driving Access to Finance for Tanzania’s Dairy Sector

July 19, 2021

Access to finance is crucial for businesses to support and expand operations; otherwise, they lack the cash flow…

photo of project team

AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project Launches into Sales Period 4

January 30, 2023

On January 25, project leadership hosted an information session with a wide range of 40 stakeholders which included…

People sitting at Africa Food Forum stage talking

AgResults and Land O’Lakes Venture37 Reflect on Gender Inclusion in Tanzania at #AGRF2023

September 12, 2023

When food systems are inclusive, understandable they are stronger, more resilient, and more sustainable. But the question of…

AgResults logo

Bolstering Fodder Supply in Tanzania’s Costal Region

January 13, 2023

After the success of its third sales period, the AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project has decided to…


Project Team

Headshot photo of Neema Mrema

Neema Mrema

Land O’Lakes Venture37 – Team Lead

Neema Mrema is the Team Leader for the Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project. Prior to joining the AgResults team, Ms. Mrema led three Tanzania-based international donor-funded projects and held senior management positions in private businesses. She has more than a decade of extensive experience in farming/agricultural systems, value chain, management and marketing systems. Currently, Ms. Mrema is responsible for management of day-to-day project activities and the quality delivery of deliverables. She has a Master of Science in Applied Microbiology from University of Botswana.

Headshot photo of Samuel Karnis

Samuel Karnis

Land O'Lakes Venture37 – Program Director

Samuel Karnis has 12 years of experiencing working in international program delivery and design, including eight years with Land O’Lakes Venture37 as a Program Manager, Department Manager, DCOP, and COP. Mr. Karnis currently serves as a Program Director overseeing Venture37’s portfolio of trade-related programming and the AgResults Tanzania Dairy Productivity Challenge Project. His areas of expertise include agribusiness development, dairy, and public-private partnerships. Prior to joining Land O’Lakes, Mr. Karnis worked with USAID, the U.S. State Department, and the Department of Defense. He holds a M.S. in Peacekeeping Operations from George Mason University.